Seit fast zwei Jahren haben wir nun “Corona” und genauso lange schon trifft die Politik weitreichende Entscheidungen, die immer wieder mit Zahlen begründet werden: Die Zahl der “Infizierten” (womit, wenn man es genau nimmt, die Zahl positiver PCR-Tests gemeint ist) oder daraus abgeleitete Werte wie die Verdopplungsdauer (war ganz am Anfang der Pandemie ein Thema), der R-Wert oder die inzwischen fast ausschließlich maßgebliche 7-Tage-Inzidenz. Oft ist dabei von “exponentiellem Wachstum” die Rede und nur selten davon, dass alle diese Zahlen mit Unsicherheiten behaftet sind, die sich beispielsweise aus Anzahl und Auswahl der getesteten Personen ergeben. Wer wird getestet und wenn ja, wie viele? Sind es Personen mit Erkältungssymptomen oder Reiserückkehrer, sind die Probanten geimpft oder nicht? Für die Aussagekraft der Testergebnisse sind diese Unterscheidungen wichtig, und trotzdem sind sie kaum je ein Thema.
Einer, der die hierzulande mangelhafte Datenlage in Sachen Corona-Pandemie regelmäßig kritisiert – und damit auch die Verantwortlichen, beispielsweise beim RKI – ist der Medizinstatistiker Prof. Dr. Gerd Antes:
Wir haben zwei Datenquellen: Das eine sind die Daten, die wir im Infektionsgeschehen erheben. Und dann brauchen wir mindestens eine Kohorten-Studie – die es in Deutschland nach anderthalb Jahren noch immer nicht gibt. Vielleicht 40.000 bis 60.000 Menschen sollten durch Untersuchungen, zum Beispiel durch regelmäßige Blutabnahmen ein Abbild unserer Gesellschaft liefern, das als Grundlage für das Pandemiemanagement dienen kann. Wir müssen von Dunkelziffern wegkommen, weil diese immer dazu führen, dass undifferenziert Maßnahmen ergriffen werden. Die Daten müssen sinnvoll so erfasst werden, dass man danach auch steuern kann. Man hätte von Anfang über die Erfassung der Berufsgruppen bei den positiven Tests ein schnelleres Verstehen der Infektionsschwerpunkte gelingen können..
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In den nachfolgenden Beiträgen unter dem Titel “Tyrannei der Unwissenden” möchte ich anhand einiger Beispiele zeigen, welche Rolle die Dunkelziffern in den Statistiken spielen können und dass diese nicht als Unsicherheitsfaktoren offen kommuniziert, sondern im Gegenteil genutzt werden, um vorgefasste Meinungen zu belegen und politische Ziele zu erreichen. Der Titel bezeiht sich natürlich auf das Statement des Radiologen und Ärzte-Funktionärs Ulrich Montgommery, der bei Anne Will von einer “Tyrannei der Ungeimpften” fabulierte. Es sind Funktionäre aus dem Wissenschafts-, Politik- und Medizinbetrieb wie er, die zwar keine Zahlen erfinden oder Pandemiedaten fälschen, die aber Dunkelziffern so verwenden, dass politische Narrative untermauert werden, wie zum Beispiel die Behauptung einer “Pandemie der Ungeimpften”. Es ist nicht immer klar, ob Unfähigkeit oder betrügerische Absicht der Grund für einen fragwürdigen Umgang mit bekannten und unbekannten Zahlen ist – im ersten, gleich folgenden Beispiel ist die Sachlage diesbezüglich aber ziemlich eindeutig.
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