Bayerns Ministerpräsident ging kürzlich damit hausieren, dass die Ungeimpften 90 Prozent des Infektionsgeschehens ausmachen würden. Man kennt ähnliche Aussagen auch von Politikern aus anderen Bundesländern, z.B. dem Saarland, Sachsen oder Hamburg.
Ein Journalist hat dann mal nachgefragt bei unserem Landesamt für Gesundheit und Lebensmittelrecht, einer Art bayerisches RKI. Zitat aus der Antwort, die er bekommen hat: „Mit Datenstand 24.11.2021, 8 Uhr wurden für die vorhergehenden 7 Tage 72.141 Fälle mit Impfstatus ‚nicht geimpft‘ bzw. ‚unbekannt‘ übermittelt. Davon war bei 57.489 Fällen der Impfstatus ‚unbekannt‘. Mit Datenstand 24.11.2021, 8 Uhr, wurden für die vorhergehenden 7 Tage 9.641 Fälle mit vollständigem Impfschutz gemeldet.“
Also:
Vollständig geimpft: 9641 Fälle
Nicht geimpft + unbekannt: 72141 Fälle
Unbekannt: 57489 Fälle
=> Nicht geimpft: 72141 – 57489 = 14652 Fälle
Vollständig geimpft + nicht geimpft: 9641 + 14652 = 24293 Fälle
Gesamt: 81782 Fälle
Bei 24293 Fällen ist der Impfstatus bekannt. Die unbekannte Dunkelziffer ist mit 57489 Fällen mehr als doppelt so hoch! Söder und das LGL haben, offenbar politisch motiviert, die Unbekannten einfach den Ungeimpften zugerechnet:
9641 / 81782 = 11,8 % infizierte Geimpfte
72141 / 81782 = 88,2 % infizierte “Ungeimpfte”
Drehen wir den Spieß einfach mal um und rechnen die Unbekannten den Geimpften zu. Die Mehrzahl der Bayern ist geimpft, also ist diese Version eigentlich die naheliegendere:
Geimpft + unbekannt: 9641 + 57489 = 67130 Fälle.
67130 / 81782 = 82,1 % infizierte “Geimpfte”
14652 / 81782 = 17,9 % infizierte Ungeimpfte
Und schon haben wir eine Pandemie der Geimpften.
Das kleine Beispiel zeigt, wie blödsinnig es ist, mit Werten, die mit einer so hohen Dunkelziffer behaftet sind, irgend etwas aussagen zu wollen. Nur Mathe-Schwänzer oder skrupellose Populisten wie der Söder tun so etwas.
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